The RBA is unlikely to deliver back-to-back cuts for variable mortgage holders, having eased rates in August.
RBA September meeting expected to be a non-event
The last time we heard directly from the central bank's monetary policy board, its message was slightly dovish on the back of reassuring inflation data for the June quarter.
The board was never widely expected to move in September – even before August's surprise jump in consumer prices.
Additionally, the RBA places far greater weight on quarterly inflation reads than it does the less holistic monthly counterpart.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics' next quarterly inflation data will be published in late October – just in time for the RBA monetary policy board's November meeting, to be held over 3 and 4 November.
Even if not for a wait on inflation data, back-to-back cuts are, in themselves, a rarity in modern times – with the most recent occurring in 2020, and before that in 2019 and 2012.
Just 4% of traders appeared to be anticipating a rate cut next week as of market close on Wednesday, according to the ASX Rate Tracker.
Indeed, the bond market doesn't appear to be pricing in a full rate cut until February and NAB has walked back its forecast of near-term cuts, instead tipping the next move to come in May 2026.
CommBank, Westpac, and ANZ continue to expect a November cut, while Westpac predicts two additional cuts to be handed down in February and May 2026.
Clues may come in the RBA's post-meeting statement
Markets will undoubtedly be watching the September statement for any change in the RBA's recently dovish sentiment.
A tilt towards firmer language on inflation risks or labour market tightness could be read as more hawkish, perhaps reinforcing some expectations that the board is in no hurry to move again.
"The meeting of the RBA's monetary policy board next week is very likely to pass with no change in rates, with the communication out of the meeting to take a step in a more hawkish direction," ANZ head of Australian economics Adam Boyton said on Friday.
The September meeting will also mark the second time the RBA reveals how many members voted for the outcome.
The August cut was unanimously supported, but any sign of disagreement in September – even on an otherwise expected hold – could point to differing views on the cash rate outlook.
Governor Michele Bullock's press conference following the decision may provide the clearest guide.
Markets will be alert to whether she highlights caution, patience, or confidence in the inflation trajectory.
"We think the governor will also highlight the importance of the coming Q3 inflation data for the board when it meets again in November," Mr Boyton said.
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