Expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate in 2026 have tipped into hiking territory this week, seemingly leading a swath of lenders to lift fixed rates.
Joining in on the action on Friday was big four bank ANZ and major lender ING, both of which upped fixed mortgage rates by as much as 35 basis points.
CommBank is now the last big four bank standing, with NAB having hiked fixed rates on Tuesday and Westpac having lifted on 12 December.
Fixed rate movements are often seen as a rough indicator of lenders' expectations for future cash rate changes, as banks price in potential risks years in advance.
ANZ economists, like those at Westpac, aren't predicting the RBA to hike the cash rate in February, but they do note the first meeting of 2026 represents considerable risk.
CommBank and NAB, on the other hand, are forecasting inflation readings for November and December - both due out prior to the RBA February meeting - will remain above target, forcing the RBA's hand.
Cash rate hikes are bad news for variable rate home loan holders, who would typically see repayments increase in the wake.
This week's about-face may have led more borrowers to consider fixing their rate, even in the face of more than a dozen fixed rate hikes.
Here are the latest rate movements from ANZ and ING:
ANZ lifted fixed home loan rates by up to 35 basis points
ANZ hiked fixed rates for owner-occupiers by up to 30 basis points, with its lowest fixed rate now 5.44% p.a. (6.29% p.a. comparison rate*), available for eligible borrowers fixing for two years:
| Fixed period | LVR | Change | New rate | Comp rate* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| One year | ≤80% | +20bp | 5.49% | 6.39% |
| 80-90% | +20bp | 5.94% | 6.62% | |
| Two years | ≤80% | +25bp | 5.44% | 6.29% |
| 80-90% | +25bp | 5.89% | 6.54% | |
| Three years | ≤80% | +30bp | 5.64% | 6.25% |
| 80-90% | +30bp | 6.09% | 6.52% | |
| Four years | ≤80% | +15bp | 5.89% | 6.28% |
| 80-90% | +15bp | 6.34% | 6.57% | |
| Five years | ≤80% | +15bp | 5.89% | 6.23% |
| 80-90% | +15bp | 6.34% | 6.54% |
For investors, the lowest fixed rate in ANZ's line up is now 5.59% p.a. (6.79% p.a. comparison rate*), available for eligible investors fixing for two years and making principal and interest repayments:
| Fixed period | Interest type | LVR | Change | New rate | Comp rate* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| One year | P&I | ≤80% | +15bp | 5.64% | 6.94% |
| 80-90% | +15bp | 6.09% | 7.17% | ||
| IO | ≤80% | +25bp | 5.84% | 6.96% | |
| 80-90% | +25bp | 6.29% | 7.19% | ||
| Two years | P&I | ≤80% | +20bp | 5.59% | 6.79% |
| 80-90% | +20bp | 6.04% | 7.04% | ||
| IO | ≤80% | +30bp | 5.79% | 6.84% | |
| 80-90% | +30bp | 6.24% | 7.08% | ||
| Three years | P&I | ≤80% | +25bp | 5.79% | 6.72% |
| 80-90% | +25bp | 6.24% | 6.99% | ||
| IO | ≤80% | +35bp | 5.99% | 6.78% | |
| 80-90% | +35bp | 6.44% | 7.05% | ||
| Four years | IO | ≤80% | +10bp | 6.14% | 6.75% |
| 80-90% | +10bp | 6.59% | 7.04% | ||
| Five years | ≤80% | +10bp | 6.14% | 6.69% | |
| 80-90% | +10bp | 6.59% | 6.99% |
ING lifts fixed home loan rates by up to 35bp
Meanwhile, international icon ING lifted fixed rates by up to 35 basis points, revealing a new lowest fixed rate of 5.54% p.a., available to eligible borrowers fixing for one year (5.43% p.a. comparison rate*) or two years (5.45% p.a. comparison rate*).
Those rates are available to borrowers signing up to the bank's Orange Advantage package, which offers a 10 basis point interest rate discount, among other features, for a $299 annual fee.
New rates on the table for owner-occupiers signing onto the Orange Advantage package are as follows:
| Fixed period | LVR | Change | New rate | Comp rate* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| One year | ≤80% | +25bp | 5.54% | 5.43% |
| 80-90% | +25bp | 5.64% | 5.62% | |
| 90-95% | +25bp | 5.74% | 5.95% | |
| Two years | ≤80% | +35bp | 5.54% | 5.45% |
| 80-90% | +35bp | 5.64% | 5.63% | |
| 90-95% | +35bp | 5.74% | 5.93% | |
| Three years | ≤80% | +30bp | 5.59% | 5.47% |
| 80-90% | +30bp | 5.69% | 5.65% | |
| 90-95% | +30bp | 5.79% | 5.93% | |
| Four years | ≤80% | +35bp | 5.69% | 5.52% |
| 80-90% | +35bp | 5.79% | 5.69% | |
| 90-95% | +35bp | 5.89% | 5.95% | |
| Five years | ≤80% | +35bp | 5.69% | 5.55% |
| 80-90% | +35bp | 5.79% | 5.70% | |
| 90-95% | +35bp | 5.89% | 5.95% |
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Image made on Canva using assets by R/DV/RS & Maksym Kozlenko on Wikimedia Commons
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