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Australia’s highly mortgaged regions seemed to be having varied reactions to the rate hikes since May last year, according to a report from CoreLogic.

The report identified the 25 suburbs with the highest number of owner-occupiers with mortgages based on the 2021 Census and analysed how home values and listings changed over the period to June.

Here are the highlights of the report:

  • Wyndham in Melbourne had the highest number of owner-occupier households with a mortgage at 43,807.
  • More than half of households in Casey – South, also in Melbourne, are holding a mortgage. This region has the highest proportion of mortgaged households.
  • Capital growth since the 2021 Census has averaged 3.1%, compared to national housing market growth of just 1.0% in the same period.
  • The performance of markets, however, are varied, with Salisbury reporting a growth of 33.1% while Gosford recording a slump of 8.9%.
  • In the four weeks to 18 June, new listings have risen across 12 of the 25 high mortgage markets.

The table below shows the 25 most mortgaged markets in Australia:

Regions

Number of Mortgaged Owner-Occupier Households

Share in total number of households

Change in Home Values since August 2021 (%)

Change in total listings versus five-year average (%)

Wyndham, Vic

43,807

47.8%

1.8

-9.6

Casey – South, Vic

38,614

56.2%

-2.1

-22.8

Wanneroo, WA

38,320

54.0%

8.4

-47.0

Whittlesea Wallan, Vic

37,864

45.5%

-2.6

-10.8

Melton - Bacchus Marsh, Vic

32,079

51.9%

-0.9

20.6

Onkaparinga, SA

29,721

43.3%

29.3

-45.6

Tullamarine – Broadmeadows, Vic

29,215

47.6%

-2.8

-12.4

Stirling, WA

28,908

35.0%

2.8

-33.2

Geelong, Vic

28,002

34.6%

-4.5

11.7

Swan, WA

27,549

54.2%

5.7

-45.5

Yarra Ranges, Vic

26,767

48.2%

-7.8

-8.6

Joondalup, WA

26,348

45.6%

8.2

-39.3

Townsville, Qld

24,988

35.7%

7.5

-33.9

Knox, Vic

23,563

41.0%

-6.9

-27.9

Blacktown – North, NSW

23,343

55.5%

3.4

-13.5

Gosford, NSW

23,223

33.9%

-8.9

-24.5

Rockingham, WA

23,053

47.6%

16.2

-48.2

Campbelltown, NSW

22,996

39.9%

0.8

-26.0

Mornington Peninsula, Vic

22,504

34.8%

-6.5

-0.1

Penrith, NSW

22,330

40.7%

-1.7

-27.6

Newcastle, NSW

22,055

31.5%

2.0

-16.8

Frankston, Vic

21,907

41.3%

-7.1

-13.6

Ormeau - Oxenford QLD

21,823

42.8%

15.8

-42.9

Wyong, NSW

21,525

34.1%

-4.4

-27.0

Salisbury, SA

20,971

40.5%

33.1

-46.1

How risky are these high mortgaged markets?

CoreLogic head of research Eliza Owen said it is crucial to note that a lot of nuances needs to be considered across these markets that are not currently captured in the data, such as the size and maturity of mortgages, and serviceability.

“At the other end of the spectrum, markets with a low concentration of owner occupier mortgages include inner city areas, and mining towns, and will presumably carry their own risk of investment loans — the location of these investors and what mortgage stress they may be facing is unclear,” she said.

Ms Owen also noted that most markets in the list are still not exhibiting capital growth trends that are alarmingly out of trend with the national housing market.

“However, it is noticeable that new listings volumes are climbing in some of these markets, where the national trend is seeing a seasonal slowdown,” she said.

This, Ms Owen said, could make it more difficult for recent buyers to make a capital gain if they are struggling to meet mortgage repayments.

“As buyer demand wanes amid higher interest costs and seasonal trends, there could be an extended downturn in some of these markets as stock accumulates, such as in Melton – Bacchus March. In areas such as Blacktown – North, where values have seen a strong bounce back in the three months to May, as supply creeps up it may put downward pressure on the growth trend in the coming months,” she said.

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Photo by Tierra Mallorca on Unsplash.

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