Fact checked
Housing markets will be in a “well-established”, steady recovery over the coming financial year, with some of the capital cities poised to make a full recovery from the 2022 downturn.
According to Domain Forecast Report, some capital cities are anticipated to reach new record highs by the end of the financial year 2024, with Sydney leading the housing and unit segments.
Here are the forecasted growth rates in housing and unit markets in each capital city and major markets for FY 2024:
|
Location |
Projected Growth FY 2024 (%) |
|
|
Houses |
Units |
|
|
Sydney |
6-9 |
2-5 |
|
Melbourne |
0-2 |
-2-1 |
|
Brisbane |
1-4 |
0-1 |
|
Perth |
1-3 |
1-3 |
|
Adelaide |
2-5 |
0-2 |
|
Hobart |
3-5 |
1-3 |
|
Canberra |
2-4 |
-1-2 |
|
Combined capitals |
2-4 |
1-3 |
|
Combined regionals |
1-3 |
0-2 |
|
Regional NSW |
-1-1 |
1-3% |
|
Regional VIC |
1-4 |
1-3 |
|
Regional QLD |
3-4 |
0-1 |
|
Gold Coast |
2-4 |
1-2 |
|
Sunshine Coast |
1-2 |
1-3 |
Here are some of the highlights of the forecast:
- Sydney’s house prices will be at a new record high by the end of the financial year. Unit prices will steadily recover, but will remain below the record high achieved in December 2021.
- Melbourne’s house prices will remain relatively stable but unit prices will be more volatile.
- Brisbane will be close to a new record high by the end of the financial year. Its unit market, however, will be more stable.
- Adelaide will hit a new record high for house prices. Its unit prices will reach a new record high despite growing slower than the housing market.
- Perth’s strength and stability will help it achieve a new record high by the end of the financial year.
- Canberra will be retaining its million-dollar status in house prices, moving into recovery over the next financial year.
- Hobart’s house prices will see its recovery be slow and steady, as unit prices approach a new record high.
Domain chief of research and economics Dr Nicola Powell said these projected changes to house and unit prices by 2024 are based on real-time behavioural data as people navigate the property journey and key economic indicators.
“Population pressures will lead the charge in factors driving housing demand and property prices higher over the next 12 months,” she said.
“Australia has seen an exponential increase in temporary and permanent migration since the international border reopened in late 2021 to alleviate skills shortages.”
Dr Powell said the potential growth in population via overseas arrivals puts us in a position where in the next financial year alone, nearly 130,000 extra dwellings will be needed, with the Eastern Seaboard receiving the largest share of migrants.
“When you combine this with unprecedented headwinds in the construction industry and unseasonably weak listings, this has contributed to a forecast of continued tight housing supply that drives up market competition,” she said.
“While prices are expected to rise, affordability will contain the pace of growth, as the likes of rapidly rising interest rates and ongoing mortgage serviceability challenges continue to play out in a complex and dynamic market.”
-
Photo by AndreyPopov on Canva.
Collections: Mortgage News Property News
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