Aussies concerned about potential property market crash

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A new poll from the CoreLogic-TEG housing market sentiment survey showed that 61 per cent of Australians feel that the housing market is vulnerable to a downturn. This sentiment is affecting all regions of the country. However, the results are lower than 68 per cent of the respondents who felt the same six months ago.

The sentiment is in line with recent housing market forecasts from CoreLogic RP Data and Moody's Analytics, which indicate that dwelling values are likely to experience falls soon. Home values are already trending lower in Perth and Darwin, with both cities recording a peak to current fall of 4.6 per cent. In addition, the pace of capital gains in both Sydney and Melbourne is moderating despite higher values over the past two growth cycles.

The survey also showed that only 61 per cent of the respondents feel that now is a good time to buy a house, as compared to 71 per cent a year ago. In fact, perceptions about buying conditions worsened over the past 12 months, with buyers in Tasmania and Sydney being the most pessimistic.

Almost two-thirds of the respondents are also expecting the mortgage rates to remain unchanged over the next 12 months while just over a quarter expect the rates to rise. Only seven per cent expect mortgage rates to decline over the next year, suggesting that they believe that the mortgage rates may have bottomed out.

CoreLogic RP Data Asia Pacific research director Tim Lawless supported this view, saying, "With bank funding costs moving higher, there is some risk that mortgage rates will increase outside of any movements from the Reserve Bank's overnight cash rate."

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