New forecasts by the National Australia Bank (NAB) have discovered that despite the national housing market losing steam, some individual states are posting respectable price growths.

Alan Oster, chief economist for the NAB Group, noted that the overall national figures obscured some of the more positive individual performances across individual state markets.
NAB Economics estimated that the average national house price growth would hit 9.1% over 2015, which is much higher than previously expected.

Sydney and Melbourne are expected to be the leaders for this year’s house price growth, with growth forecasts for the two cities at 14.6% and 15.2%, respectively.

NAB tipped modest gains for Brisbane this year, at 4.4%, while Adelaide’s values were expected to fall by 0.4%. NAB also estimated that Perth’s house values would drop by 4%.

On what could be expected of next year, NAB warned that the situation for many states would not be as optimistic. Previously, NAB’s forecast was at 3% growth, but Oster exclaimed that it would most likely be closer to 2.3% instead. He said that this slow down would be largely the result of Sydney and Melbourne’s moderating price growth.

Queensland was tipped to be the next leader in housing price growth next year, as the price increases among southern states begin to cool.
Sydney prices were predicted to only increase by 1.2% next year, while Melbourne goes down by 3%.

Brisbane was expected to enjoy the fastest house price growth for next year, at 4.5%, and there were expectations for Adelaide to improve by 2.4%.

Perth’s prices were projected to remain weak next year, likely taking a drop of 1.2%.

Oster noted that foreign buyers had been more active in the housing market for the September quarter, particularly in Victoria. Foreign buyers accounted for about 16% of total demand in new housing markets, and 9% in established housing markets.

In Victoria, foreigners accounted for over one in four of all new property sales, and around one in seven of established homes sales.


 

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