Home lenders keeping powder dry amid RBA call

It's been eerily quiet on the home loan market this week despite many lenders no doubt being poised to deliver interest rate relief in the wake of an RBA cash rate cut.

But with markets declaring a cut almost inevitable, the RBA had its own view and decided to keep the cash rate at 3.85% on Tuesday.

The big bank economists had all forecast a July cut on the basis of weaker monthly inflation figures for May while it was flat retail sales data that got hold-out ANZ over the line.

But the RBA's monetary policy board members voted 6-3 to keep the rate on hold.

What now for the cash rate?

The odds of an August cut to the cash rate have now firmed considerably although markets have now eased back on their prediction of a 25-basis point cut.

The day after the RBA meeting, bond markets had priced in a 91% chance of a rate cut in August.

It had been an emphatic 100% as late as Monday 7 July but with a month to go before the next meeting, anything could happen.

This is especially the case when it comes to ever-changing US trade tariffs that have throw the global economic outlook onto an uncertain path.

On the domestic front, the June quarter inflation figures, due on 30 July, will provide a better picture of whether inflation really is under control.

Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock said in her post-meeting media conference this week, the board believes inflation to be higher than the May monthly figure would have us believe.

So, mortgage holders will have to wait another month to see whether they'll be delivered a third interest rate cut for 2025.

What are the big banks predicting now?

Here's how the big four see it for the time being:

Bank	Cash rate forecast	Taking cash rate to
CommBank	August rate cut "almost certain", followed by likely rate cut in November	3.35%
Westpac	Small risk August could be "too soon" if inflation proves higher than expected. Further cuts in November, February, and May	2.85%
NAB	Continues to see cuts in August, November and now February	3.10%
ANZ	Cuts in August and November	3.35%

Did anyone move home loan rates this week?

There were just two smaller lenders that adjusted their fixed rates lower this week.

QBank, servicing Queensland's emergency service workers, dropped its fixed home loan rates by 30 basis points for owner occupiers making principal and interest (P&I) repayments.

Its new lowest rate is 5.09% p.a. (6.89% p.a. comparison rate*) for borrowers with loan-to-value ratios (LVRs) up to 95% fixing for three years.

Those locking in for two years can secure a rate of 5.19% p.a. (7.12% p.a. comparison rate*).

QBank's fixed-rate loans come with free online redraw and the ability to make up to $30,000 in extra repayments without penalty.

Another small Queensland bank The Capricornian has also dropped a range of its fixed rate home loans by up to 35 basis points.

Its new best rate is 5.29% p.a. (6.06% p.a. comparison rate*) for borrowers with an LVR of 80% or less, making P&I repayments, and fixing for three years via its Premium Choice home loan.

New cashback offer announced

Greater Bank has unveiled a new $3,000 cashback offer for external borrowers who apply through its digital home loan channel from 17 July.

There are a few conditions attached including borrowers must have a maximum LVR of 80% and be applying for a loan amount greater than $500,000.

Greater Bank's regular cashback offer of up to $2,500 for non-digital borrowers still applies. 

See also: Home Loan Cashback & Refinance Offers - July 2025

The lending market will now likely be saving its big moves until at least 12 August, when the next RBA cash rate decision is due.

The hold also gives prospective homebuyers more time to find a property before another rate cut plays its part in heating up the housing market.

See also: Median house prices around Australia: July 2025

Image by Karolina Grabowska via Pexels

---

Advertisement

If you're looking for a home loan, the table below features some of the most competitive owner occupier home loans on the market.

Important Information and Comparison Rate Warning