Westpac revises call, sees RBA cutting to 3.60% in July
Three of the big four banks are now forecasting the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut the...
26 Jun, 2025
While the RBA has held steady since May, the last rate cut continues to influence lending markets, as well as consumer and property market sentiment.
The RBA board announced a 25 basis point cut on Tuesday 20 May, bringing the cash rate to 3.85%.
"Data on inflation for the March quarter provided further evidence that inflation continues to ease," its post-meeting statement read.
"With inflation expected to remain around target, the Board therefore judged that an easing in monetary policy at this meeting was appropriate."
The cut marked the second reduction of the current cash rate cycle – one that's expected to be a drawn-out easing cycle.
✅ Passed on full 0.25% cut? |
Yes |
📆 Days taken to announce |
Immediate (announced 20 May) |
⏳ Days taken to implement |
10 days (effective 30 May) |
🏠 Loans affected |
Variable rate home loans |
Find out more: CommBank slashes home loan interest rates in wake of RBA cut |
✅ Passed on full 0.25% cut? |
Yes |
📆 Days taken to announce |
Immediate (announced 20 May) |
⏳ Days taken to implement |
14 days (effective 3 June) |
🏠 Loans affected |
Variable rate home loans |
Find out more: Westpac cuts home loan interest rates following RBA move |
✅ Passed on full 0.25% cut? |
Yes |
📆 Days taken to announce |
Immediate (announced 20 May) |
⏳ Days taken to implement |
10 days (effective 30 May) |
🏠 Loans affected |
Variable rate home loans |
Find out more: NAB cuts home loan interest rates following RBA decision |
✅ Passed on full 0.25% cut? |
Yes |
📆 Days taken to announce |
Immediate (announced 20 May) |
⏳ Days taken to implement |
10 days (effective 30 May) |
🏠 Loans affected |
Variable rate home loans |
Find out more: ANZ to cut variable home loan rates following RBA decision |
Lender |
Full Cut Passed? |
Days to Announce |
Days to Implement |
---|---|---|---|
✅ Yes |
Within hours |
3 |
|
✅ Yes |
Within hours |
Immediately (at least for new customers) |
|
✅ Yes |
1 |
9 |
|
✅ Yes |
2 |
14 |
|
✅ Yes |
2 |
14 |
Athena was by far the first to implement the February rate cut - moving within hours of the RBA's decision.
✅ Passed on cut? |
Yes - full 0.25% |
📆 Announcement |
Within hours (same day) |
⏳ Time to implement |
Immediate |
🏠 Loans affected |
All variable rate customers |
Athena has a history of passing on cash rate cuts the same day they're announced. |
None of the lenders in our review did not pass on the May rate cut.
Was your bank slow to pass on the cut? If so, it could be a sign that it might be time to refinance. Check out these top rates available now:
Lender | Home Loan | Interest Rate | Comparison Rate* | Monthly Repayment | Repayment type | Rate Type | Offset | Redraw | Ongoing Fees | Upfront Fees | Max LVR | Lump Sum Repayment | Extra Repayments | Split Loan Option | Tags | Features | Link | Compare | Promoted Product | Disclosure |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5.54% p.a. | 5.58% p.a. | $2,852 | Principal & Interest | Variable | $0 | $530 | 90% |
| Promoted | Disclosure | ||||||||||
5.49% p.a. | 5.40% p.a. | $2,836 | Principal & Interest | Variable | $0 | $0 | 80% |
| Disclosure | |||||||||||
5.64% p.a. | 5.68% p.a. | $2,883 | Principal & Interest | Variable | $0 | $530 | 90% |
| Promoted | Disclosure |
With the May decision behind us, economists remain divided on the pace of further easing.
As of 25 June, those at Westpac and ANZ are predicting the board will hold the cash rate at its June meeting. CommBank and NAB, on the other hand, forecast a July cut – bringing the cash rate to 3.60%.
Meeting Date |
Decision |
Cash rate |
---|---|---|
17–18 Feb |
-0.25% |
4.10% |
31 Mar–1 Apr |
Hold |
4.10% |
19–20 May |
-0.25% |
3.85% |
7–8 July |
TBD |
??? |
11–12 Aug |
TBD |
??? |
29–30 Sep |
TBD |
??? |
3–4 Nov |
TBD |
??? |
8–9 Dec |
TBD |
??? |
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA’s) overnight cash rate target (often simply called the cash rate) influences many things. Though, home loan holders are likely most concerned with how it impacts interest rates.
The RBA cash rate determines how much lenders need to pay to borrow money. The higher the cash rate, the more expensive it is for a bank to operate day-to-day.
Therefore, when the cash rate is high, so to will be the interest rates that banks and lenders charge to borrowers and provide to depositors. After all, banks and lenders want to protect their bottom line, just like the rest of us.
As of 20 May, the cash rate is 3.85%, having been cut from its recent high of 4.35%.
The below chart shows how the cash rate has moved in recent times:
The cash rate serves as a crucial tool in managing the economy.
By adjusting the cash rate, the RBA can influence economic activity, control inflation, and ensure financial stability.
When the economy is overheating and inflation – that is, the price of goods and services – is rising too quickly, the RBA might increase the cash rate to make borrowing more expensive. That, in turn, can be expected to cool down spending and investment.
On the other hand, when the economy is sluggish and growth is subdued, a lower cash rate can stimulate it by making borrowing cheaper and encouraging spending.
Essentially, the cash rate acts as a lever to balance economic growth and maintain a healthy financial system.
However, the cash rate is not without its faults. It is often described as a 'blunt tool' because changes to the rate ripple across the entire economy, impacting far more than just the intended targets.
To explain how the RBA cash rate influences home loan interest rates, we need to start with how banks manage their money.
Regulations demand that banks maintain a certain level of liquidity at the end of each day. This means they must have a certain amount of cash on hand.
Cash deposits – such as those in savings accounts and term deposits – count towards a bank’s liquidity, while funds lent to borrowers reduce its liquidity.
If a bank disburses more funds through loans and deposit withdrawals within a single day than it receives in new deposits and loan repayments, it might struggle to meet its liquidity requirements.
That’s when the cash rate comes in. A bank can choose to borrow the necessary funds overnight to meet its liquidity needs, and it will be charged the overnight cash rate set by the RBA.
For that reason, when the cash rate is high, so is the cost of doing business for banks. When the cost of doing business is high, banks increase interest rates charged to borrowers to recoup their higher costs.
However, the cash rate isn’t the only factor that impacts home loan interest rates. Sometimes, lenders will adjust their home loan interest rates even if there has been no change in the cash rate. These ‘out of cycle’ home loan rate changes happen frequently.
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