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Group offers grim medium term forecast

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By Robert Carry

Australia's hopes of economic recovery are premature and over-optimistic, a new report by a leading economic forecaster has suggested.

Access Economics' newly released Business Outlook praised the country's performance during the worst of the global downturn and predicts growth of 1.9% this year and 3.2% in 2010-2011. However, The Australian Financial Review reports that the group has challenged the Treasury's predictions that GDP growth will hit 4.5% the following year.

"We didn't dodge a bullet, we outran it," said report author Chris Richardson. "We sailed through the worst of the global crisis on a sea of stimulus but the cash splash has pretty much passed and the Reserve Bank [has started to] raise interest rates. That means stiffer headwinds into the recovery than many recognise."

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